Thoughts on the Academy Award nominations

This morning the Academy Award nominations were announced. While most of the nominees were expected, there were some surprises and snubs that the web is abuzz over. As always, the Golden Globes were a decent predictor of the Oscar noms, except for the sudden recognition of "True Grit," which was by-and-large snubbed by the Globes. I'm going to go through the nominations, giving my two cents worth. I don't normally like to do this, but I'll go ahead and predict who will win using bold type. In the editorial, I'll elaborate on who I think should win.(Sorry, but I'm skipping over documentaries and short films, foreign language film, Art Direction, Costumes, and Best Makeup. My knowledge of these categories is slim at best, so any comment on them would be fruitless on my part.)

Best Picture
127 Hours*(tie)
Black Swan*
The Fighter* (tie)
Inception
The Kids are All Right
The King's Speech*
The Social Network*
Toy Story 3*
True Grit
Winter's Bone

Nothing out of the ordinary here. Some are still quibbling over the ten nominee system for Best Picture, but this year I think it works well. There aren't a whole lot of fluff nominations that got in simply because there was more room. But if I had to pick just five, I would pick the ones I starred. I love "Inception," but it should be well served in other categories and if it really came down to it, I wouldn't include it in the top five. "127 Hours" and "The Fighter" are hard to choose between because, while I trust that they are both excellent movies, they are the only two on this list I haven't seen yet. I was considering leaving off "Toy Story 3," since it will win the Best Animated Film award, but in this case it should be in the running for the big one.

Best Actor
Javier Bardem, "Biutiful"
Jeff Bridges, "True Grit"
Jesse Eisenberg, "The Social Network"
Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"
James Franco, "127 Hours"

The race here is between Franco and Firth, but the Academy just loves Colin Firth. There's still some goodwill probably floating about after Firth didn't win for his superb performance in "A Single Man," which will most likely work in his favor.

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, "The Fighter
John Hawkes, "Winter's Bone"
Jeremy Renner, "The Town"
Mark Ruffalo, "The Kids Are All Right"
Geoffrey Rush, "The King's Speech"

I was surprised to see Hawkes get in there, although he was good in "Winter's Bone." I was also pleasantly surprised to see Renner score a nom, although I wish "The Town" had gotten more recognition overall. I am absolutely livid about Ruffalo getting in there over Andrew Garfield, who delivered one of the best performances of the year in "The Social Network." The scene towards the end where his character realizes just how much he got screwed over should have earned him a nomination. Ruffalo was fine, but what about his role screamed "best performance of the year?"

Best Actress
Annette Bening, "The Kids Are All Right"
Nicole Kidman, "Rabbit Hole"
Jennifer Lawrence, "Winter's Bone"
Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"
Michelle Williams, "Blue Valentine"

If all the hype doesn't carry her, this is a category where we could possibly see an upset. I think that's highly unlikely though, seeing as how Portman's performance speaks for itself, hype or not. This is a tough one though, since Williams and Lawrence have some good buzz behind them for their great performances. But if the Oscars are going to recognize a great juvenile performance this year, it's going to be Hailee Steinfeld's for "True Grit."

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, "The Fighter"
Helena Bonham Carter, "The King's Speech"
Melissa Leo, "The Fighter"
Hailee Steinfeld, "True Grit"
Jacki Weaver, "Animal Kingdom"

I don't understand how they can call Steinfeld a Supporting Actress, as she was the star of that movie, but she might not have gotten the nom otherwise. While she deserves the nom, I don't think she's going to get the win. I'm not super upset over Mila Kunis being left out for "Black Swan." I enjoyed that movie, but her role wasn't very meaty and she didn't actually have that much to do. Her performance has been a little overhyped, so while I'm surprised they didn't nominate her, I'm not disappointed.

Best Animated Film
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

I have to keep reminding myself that some foreign animated movie came out last year and they're not just nominating that Edward Norton magician movie years later. I'm curious how wide of a release "The Illusionist" received because I hadn't even heard of it until the Golden Globes. I'm surprised "Tangled" didn't get a nom. It's not like this category was overstuffed, they only nominated three movies! But this is the category will "Toy Story 3" will get its much-deserved award.

Best Cinematography
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

"True Grit," while not a great movie in my estimation, did look amazing. But I would love to see this one go to "Black Swan" and I think it will. Even if you hated that movie, you can't deny that the cinematography was fascinating. You could turn off the sound and just look at the movie and still enjoy it.

Best Director
Darren Aronofsky, "Black Swan"
Joel & Ethan Coen, "True Grit"
David Fincher, "The Social Network"
Tom Hooper, "The King's Speech"
David O. Russell, "The Fighter"

In my opinion, this was the most difficult category this year. You have hyped directors, talented directors, hyped and talented directors, and everything in between vying for a spot. I'm pretty peeved that Christopher Nolan got bumped from the category. So, "Inception" was one of the best movies, it was one of the most visually skilled, its screenplay was one of the best, but apparently the director had nothing to do with any of that? I really think the reason he got bumped was because his movie was the most popular, "popcorn," blockbuster movie to get nominated. When it comes down to it, the Academy will go for the "serious" or more "artsy" films every single time and Nolan fell prey to that. I agree with what I read on another site, that the Coen brothers could have made "True Grit" in their sleep. It was a solid movie, but nothing special. This is Fincher's to lose. It's the year of "The Social Network," a movie that performed well but also maintains its "serious" cred, and the Fincher/Sorkin team is a force to be reckoned with. Their combined buzz will lead them both to major wins on Oscar night.

Best Editing
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
The King's Speech
The Social Network

How "Inception" was not nominated here, I will never know. I can understand it losing out in the bigger categories, but it should win every technical award it can. That movie would have been crap if not for the brilliant editing, and how can anyone watch the cross-cutting between the dream-levels and not think to nominate it? "The Social Network" could possibly take this one as its hype will probably bleed over into other categories, but "Black Swan" should take it.

Best Score
"127 Hours," A.R. Rahman
"How to Train Your Dragon," John Powell
"Inception," Hans Zimmer
"The King's Speech," Alexandre Desplat
"The Social Network," Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

I'd love to see Hans Zimmer win, but I'd put money down that it's going to go to "The Social Network." And I won't be that heartbroken. "Inception" had a great soundtrack, but so did "The Social Network." Its win would absolutely not be undeserved. "Inception" has received some harsh criticism from the Internet after random viral sensations lampooned its main theme, but the score was more than just that small snippet pounding during the fight scenes that people remember the most.

Best Song
"Coming Home," Country Strong
"I See the Light," Tangled
"If I Rise," 127 Hours
"We Belong Together," Toy Story 3

"Toy Story 3" will win over the other animated nom here. The only possible competition could be from the song from "127 Hours," but once again, leftover goodwill from years past when Randy Newman didn't win for "You've Got a Friend in Me" will help him out.

Best Sound Editing
Inception
Toy Story 3
TRON: Legacy
True Grit
Unstoppable

Best Sound Mixing
Inception
The King's Speech
Salt
The Social Network
True Grit

Best Visual Effects
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 1
Hereafter
Inception
Iron Man 2

I've already stated my opinions on "Inception" regarding the technical categories above, so I won't elaborate on these three categories. These will be the "Avatar" categories - where the Academy acknowledges the popular movie, but this is all it will get.

Best Original Screenplay
Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech

I'm torn here. The Globes really liked "The Kids Are All Right," but I just have a feeling that it's not going to have as much luck at the Oscars since it's sharing categories with Dramas, not just Comedies and Musicals. "The King's Speech" is tailor-made to be an Oscar darling, and you know what? It completely deserves it.

Best Adapted Screenplay
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

Funny how sequels are considered Adapted Screenplays, huh? But this is another one where I would put down money (hell, I'd probably bet my life on this one) that Aaron Sorkin is going to go home with this award. He did a fantastic job, he deserves it, and he's going to win. No doubts here.